|
|
| |
Spring Update - BIG CHANGES UNDERWAY!
We hope you're having a great start to Spring. April weather trends are much more favorable than March.
- March 2023 for the U.S. coldest in 4 years, snowiest in 5 years and wettest in 7 years - unfavorable for Spring merchandise sales.
- April 2023 trending warmest in 4 years, least snow in 6 years and driest in 11 years - very favorable for a big pent up demand surge in sales.
EASTER COMPARISON
The 5-days leading up to Easter this year (5-9 April 2023) had a lot of similarities to last year (13-17 April 2022). The East was clearly the most favorable weather area for holiday sales and store traffic. Nationally this was one of those rare cases with nearly identical weather: National HIGH temperatures 63.1F, -0.5F cooler than last year, nearly identical rainfall but 62% less snow. Net-net a slightly more favorable Easter in 2023. The week after Easter has been significantly more favorable, trending much warmer than LY and driest in 15 years.
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
| |
Client Quote
"Weather Trends' long range information has again been very accurate (83% past 12 months) and valuable to me capturing the big negative weather factors on retail during the December holiday shopping season along with the challenging March 2023. Their more favorable year-ahead outlook for April and Easter has been spot on capturing both the weather and the influence on retail traffic and seasonal sales. Highly recommend Captain Kirk and the WT360 team."
Chuck Grom, CFA, CPA | Gordon Haskett Equity Research
|
|
|
|
| |
| |
| |
ACCURACY
Weather Trends YEAR-AHEAD accuracy continues to outperform every weather company's WEEK 2 short range forecast. The trailing 12 months of forecasts (April 2022 - March 2023) are at 83% for both weekly temperatures and weekly precipitation. This accuracy level is maintained all the way down to an individual city level despite being a year-ahead.
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
The YEAR-AHEAD forecast did well capturing the big weather trends that influenced seasonal sales and store traffic:
- Accurately predicted the coldest holiday shopping season (Nov-Dec) in 4 years, snowiest in 9 years. The near historic cold in middle December was a plus for Winter seasonal items but hurt overall store traffic and non-seasonal categories.
- The driest July - October in 22 years last year and the big change to the wettest start to the year in 4 years as the 3-year La Nina cycle ended.
- The warmest January - February in 6 years followed by the much colder March.
- Weather Trends pre-season U.S. snowfall outlook for Nov - Mar projected snow totals would be the most in 4 years but still below average. That's what happened. Look out next Winter - very likely the snowiest in 10 years, especially along the East Coast with significant sales gains for snow accessories.
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
- WTI projected the Spring 2023 severe weather season would be the most active in 6 years and that's certainly been the case with 517 reported tornadoes. The most in 6 years and near historic high activity. This trend will continue for the core Spring season.
- Weather Trends short range day 1-14 forecasts continue to be industry leading per independent auditors, especially in the week 2 period.
|
|
|
|
| |
| |
NEW PRODUCTS
Weathertrends360 launched a new fire risk product for the U.S. going out 7-days that can identify your stores or distribution centers at risk. With the collapse of the La Nina drought cycle, the wetter conditions will likely continue the trend of below average acres burned for 2023.
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|
To date wildfires acres burned are down -78% below average; wt360 expects the season to end -20% below average and the least in 4 years.
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|
Another new product enhancement was added to FarmCast with farm specific 2023 recommendations for WTI's hundreds of small farmer clients. For more information visit our Agriculture information page on wt360.com.
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
2023 ALLERGY AND ASTHMA OUTLOOK
The much warmer and drier April is bad news for your allergies which will likely peak in middle April. Weather Trends CEO Captain Bill Kirk presented to the Allergy & Asthma Network on our 2023 entire season outlook for these treatable diseases that impact over 80 million people nationwide. Watch the video.
|
|
|
|
| |
| |
FLU AND COVID IMPACTS LESS
On the disease front there were some positives to the coldest late Summer - early Fall in 21 years for the Southeast with a very early onset of Type A Flu. Cold/dry weather early in the season can help to spur the spread of Flu and that was the case this year with the fastest spike season in 13 years. The good news is the rapid start and steady decline with much lower COVID cases had the U.S. population much healthier than the year-prior. A year ago both COVID and FLU were spiking during the critical holiday shopping season.
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
NEW STAFF
Weather Trends is excited to welcome two new members to our team.
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|
PhD Michael Ferrari joins as CIO. Michael has an impressive career in agriculture, commodities and trading having worked for IBM, M&M Mars, NASA, Point72, Engine No. 1 among others.
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|
Casey Shosh is the newest addition to our B2B sales team and joins wt360 as VP Enterprise Solutions.
|
|
|
|
| |
| |
| |
|
We hope you enjoyed this update from your weather team WT360, we're always here to help! We're very thankful for your confidence in us, and proud to work with so many of the World's most successful and admired companies.
|
|
|
|
| |
| |
|
|
| |
| |
Weather Trends International | One Bethlehem Plaza | 1 West Broad Street Suite #802, Bethlehem, PA 18018-5717
610-807-0118 |
weathertrends360.com
|
|
|
|
| |
|
| |
| |
This email was sent by: %%Member_Busname%%
%%Member_Addr%% %%Member_City%%, %%Member_State%%, %%Member_PostalCode%%, %%Member_Country%%
|
Update Profile | Unsubscribe
|
|
|
|
| |
